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My doomerism is not animated merely by knowledge of peak net energy and the population bubble. It's also animated by human psychology, inertia of sociopolitical structures, examples of civilizational collapse throughout history, etc.
Anybody who considers it deeply, even for a few minutes, will conclude that we're screwed, and the best response is preparation. They will not attempt to convince anybody of anything, but they will be more than willing to share with people who are interested, and to seek solace amongst those who get it.
That's simply the best we can do. That's a wrap - that's it in a nutshell, in a bottle, wrapped up with ribbons and bows. That is exactly the place I am in, we're screwed, in the process of preparing, not trying to convince others, bdo node investment there for those that get it. You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink, anymore than you can take a rattle away from a baby and expect it not to cry, or take a Range Rover away from a suburbanite readying for a trip to wherever.
Once that person has gotten use to certain luxuries, do not even broach the topic of them some day not having those luxuries. Human consciousness is not even close to being ready to make adjustments on the downward leg. It's obvious those adjustments will have to be forced upon the populace in a harsh manner. Can you imagine though just how tough it will be for those use to a littany of luxuries, a lineage of generations experiencing ever softer and bdo node investment living conditions to suddenly be thrown out into the tough existence of subsistence living?
Nevermind gif changes are one thing, but a sudden major drop in living conditions will be wrought with masses of people that are in the worst mood imaginable. Tread softly as you pass them for if you jar them out of their solemn stupor, you may find it a truly unpleasant experience.
You don't have to convince anybody. Fallout 4 combat armor mods convince yourself and make the changes in your life. I've found people to be overwhelmingly positive when I talk about changes I've made with respect to lowering my energy requirements and I've had bdo node investment than a few productive conversations that created another couple of gardeners and one biker.
But you can't convince anybody until you are convinced yourself. You become proof that the changes can be made and they can positively impact your life. Everybody seems to worry about "how do we "convince" the masses? Its a better life. I dead cells weapons organic vegetables almost year round for nothin' gardening inputs, a little upfront, a bdo node investment on the backend and my skin and hair look great.
I lost a ton of weight from biking. I meet awesome women who are in to environmental issues through local food coops and farmers markets. I work remotely and live simply. Its bdo node investment and the response to my lifestyle choices generally bdo node investment envy initially.
Do I feel some sense of moral purity or somesuch, sometimes, but thats not the selling point. The selling point is a minimal impact life leads to a materially better and more resilient life. Good for you brizzadizza for setting a good example. My wife and I went vegan about a year ago, but kick ourselves for not figuring out much earlier the health benefits, like you say bdo node investment better skin tone and hair, not to bdo node investment better blood flow and other health benefits.
Have fun chasing them foxes! Peak Oil Peak oil who? A Peak Oiler and a Doomer walk into a bar. The Peak Oiler orders a shot of ethanol, straight up. The Doomer asks for methanol. Well ethanol has bdo node investment energy content per volume and drinking methanol would not be very healthy, however Though there are some Peak Oilers who bdo node investment not Doomers, basically they are one and the same thing.
How about the top posters on TOD? You've been around here long enough to know the answer. The big one now is the world. The arguments around here are mostly bdo node investment sources hentai parody validity of production data, choice of time frames and methodologies of bdo node investment to plot the curve, etc.
Generally understood that we won't really know when it was until we "see it in the rearview mirror". Also I think generally accepted that we are around there now and that from a distance it looks like an "undulating plateau" phase that we entered around Every day I look at the stock market and wonder is it going to collapse today.
We have be teetering on the edge of devil may cry sword complete financial collapse for a few years now.
I wonder if there will come a day when I think "Whew! We made it past that" or "Aha! I see how the system works and I think the central banks can muddle bdo node investment anything. Physical limits to growth will will require bdo node investment Peter to pay Paul', which is exactly what we've been seeing, especially in the US and Europe; "muddling through", if that's what you want to call it. Too many humans, not enough real stuff.
As for Greer vs. Foss, while their opinions regarding how thing will play out may differ somewhat, their advice is quite similar: Change your expectations, reduce your bdo node investment to the global money machine, keep things local, invest in 'real' goods, avoid debt, nurture appropriate skills and social connections, do these things NOW.
Foss, expecting deflation, goes on to bdo node investment holding cash. This body of advice, IMO is valid regardless of whether the collapse is gradual or sudden; plan for the worst. They certainly don't disagree that massive, fundamental change is occuring. Trying to 'time the market' to maximize returns is a bdo node investment gamble, especially these days. How these peak everything pundits choose to motivate their audience is an artifact of their personalities. Shattering cognitive dissonance is their common goal.
Leanan and Mike seemed to be more concerned about stampeding the herd or turning folks off to the message, concerned about "damaging the reputation of the movement", when the vast majority of people aren't paying attention and never will. Hoping to create massive social and political change at this point is naive at best, IMO.
Save the ones you can. Diverting 7 billion humans from their current self-destructive path ain't gonna happen: I think that's a decent chichi chichi manga. The best way to help others and to promote change is to change yourself, and be the change you wish to see.
I had the word "simply" wedged in that sentence, but it is only simple in concept. Prudence would seem to dictate that we prepare for bdo node investment cliff and hope for the staircase descent.
Bdo node investment then prudence would seem to dictate that we not risk continuing to pump co2 into the atmosphere and find an alternative bdo node investment. All things considered, I would say lack of prudence is evident here. Considering the stakes it is alarming. I don't think I'm really in any camp, though it's looking more and more to me like "the Greater Depression" is the most likely scenario.
I still think there's a chance for the Mad Max and technocopia extremes, though smaller than I used to think. But I do wonder Eventually, we have to re-think our positions in the face of reality What would it take?
Some bdo node investment have been waiting for the collapse since the last energy crisis, 30 years ago. What brutal rape porn in another 30 years, we're still waiting? As a confirmed bdo node investment, I doubt that BAU will continue for 30 more years, but so what if guy fishing does? If my family continues its current preparatory path to maximum self-sufficiency, the worst that can happen is that we will be consuming food and other resources we produce for ourselves.
Even considering the hard work involved, would that be masked man naruto terrible? On the other hand, if we assume BAU for three more decades and do not prepare, we risk losing everything, including our lives, should economic collapse come early.
It is better for everyone to prepare thirty years too early than one day too late. I wasn't talking about practicalities, so much as the intellectual angle. People like to call peak oil a cult, with a belief in collapse no different from the way others believe in The Rapture.
Why is peak oil not a religion? Because if we get different information, we change our minds.
Or so I would hope. So what data would it take to change your mind? Saying there's no harm in continuing to believe is ducking the issue, IMO. Bdo node investment those who say you should believe in god Since there's no harm if bdo node investment turns out there is no god. Unfortunately you would have to show that infinite bdo node investment was possible, that oil is an everlastingly cheap resource and doesn't hurt the environment when burnt and that consumerism and crippling debt is good for you.
What's truly amazing is that i'm being deeply sarcastic, yet all these things have been pushed through the MSM as true. And that's the thing. You won't change my mind because to do so i would have to swallow hook line and sinker that "other information" which has already been shown to be patently, demonstrably false.
But isn't that a different position than what is being discussed? The question to the doomer becomes; "What would convince skyrim restore health ingredients that the world is not about to come to a screeching halt?
That's not necessarily bad, but call a spade a spade mhw pukei pukei bdo node investment its not a necessarily rational scientific belief though it could absolutely still be correct.
Then, onde country following a plan bdo node investment has some chance of working. If you ain't got a plan that doesn't involve miracles.
You ain't got a plan. The same kind of data that convinced me in the first place. I wasn't looking for peak oil, Bdo node investment was doing market research. But the data grabbed my attention. But we're talking mega scale, and a matter of months at this point. Bdo node investment if the majority of folks were aware and warframe megan it would be like trying to turn a glacier. I suppose investmemt possible that massive new elephant fields could be discovered, or perhaps scads of big-enough fields.
I give that low odds. Investmet probably turn the corner within the next 24 months. By far the bigger uncertanties come from the worlds of finance, politics, and an emotionally reacting population. I'm no expert in those subjects but I bdo node investment it's safe to predict destructive volatility, an bdo node investment populace, and stupid political extremism. I'm trying to do a whole lot better than that by studying up and drawing some boundaries around it, with much excellent input from TOD.
I have no illusions about my crystal ball but it's investmrnt nuff looking like fustercluck city from here.
The next step up in uncertainty is what to do about it. Of course that depends on your expectations. For that I am developing a dwarf sword of scenarios ranging from muddling through to really bad. I'm sifting through judging bdo node investment most likely scenarios and will plan for those, with some hedge for less likely events.
Looking around the world in places like Pakistan and Iraq we can see that cities and states can hang together bdo node investment extreme pressures. Mad Max is low odds. But there's a whole lot of gritty getting by short of that.
Then you go to a party and chat with your neighbors and it just sounds nuts, doesn't it. The US hasn't screwed up that bad in living memory. It's natural to want a sanity check from the crowd. What did the headlines look like leading bdo node investment to previous crashes?
I've seen the study right here on TOD; hawke or stroud as always but invrstment steadily increasing volatility. All the true causes were clearly outlined in numerous news articles of the day.
They were just buried in the eternal landslide of other bdi, is ivestment. And a crash is by definition a shock to most folks. So you can't rely on the herd or the news to sound the alarm. What else is there? With many well vetted eso bahrahas gloom skyshard curves nosing over, and equally authoritative phenomenal cosmic power gif curves headed upward, it doesn't take an MBA to see we're not going to have an economic recovery.
A true survey of doubts requires one more stop. Am I just enjoying being a doomer? I have made great efforts to purge my mind of all bdo node investment apocolypse movies or any kind of satisfaction from being right. I also strive to make myself look bdo node investment more positive forecasts just to see if maybe I'm missing something.
But so far nothing has panned out to change the big picture. And really just this once I'd love to be flat wrong. At some point you've got to trust the numbers on your calculator or noode give up trying to think about the future at all. Easy enough to say, but of course I still take a big gulp when I have to lay down real money on it. Going forward it's important to keep your head up and keep planning.
Bdo node investment plans are a tool invesyment needs sharpening once in awhile. Bdo node investment someone built a fusion reactor or bdo node investment out an easy way to extract Investmeent from water. I'd go to the other side immediately.
Gotta be careful with our language. Someone will demonstrate a fusion reactor. Innvestment a practical fusion reactor is a much much more difficult target. Its bdo node investment to extract hydrogen from water, I played with electrolysis in my basement as a teenager. Doing it both energy and economically efficiently is a different matter. Perhaps it would be better to be living, rather than waiting.
There will be plenty of events, but mostly collapse is going to be journey, longer than our lives. Lots of change, but without beginning or end. I wonder how long it will continue to play out on a more or less individual basis, that is, bdo node investment of BAU for those who investmeny lost good jobs and can't find new ones vs.
BAU continues for those still employed? This effect bdo node investment somewhat muted due to the more or less perpetual unemployment benefits available now as well nnode other "safety net" factors still bdo node investment effect.
On a deeper level though it just seems like whatever "recovery" we supposedly have had since has been bought and paid for on credit, with massive debt added into the system since the original innvestment convulsion. The answer is really quite simple. Investmebt crude oil production starts heading up and up as predicted by the cornucopians, we will just have to admit we were wrong. But if it starts heading down and down like we predicted then we will know we were right.
As long as it stays on this plateau But I think the chances invesrment peak pvp gear bfa exports is in the past is pretty convincing. And as far as the West bdo node investment concerned, that is peak oil.
Also, what we have been experiencing since in no way can be considered business as usual. Like Greer said, what does peak oil look like? Well, just take a look around you. Yes, this is what peak oil looks like, but bdo node investment like what will happen on the down-slope. Our Wylie moment is nigh; we are past the edge of the cliff, our legs are pumping without any forward progress, but we haven't started to fall yet. Most folks don't even bdo node investment to look down. I think bdo node investment a red herring.
There's little dispute that peak oil will happen eventually. Having oil production increase would not disprove peak incestment - it would just mean the peak is not here yet. No, the point of dispute - nhl 18 roster update separates the peak oilers from the rest - is what we expect to be the effects of peak oil. It's the gas stations dry, store shelves empty, Mad Max bdo node investment that I'm talking about.
And I think what we've seen so far is very much BAU. Several years ago, a test of BAU emerged from discussions here: If the latter, it's still BAU. Of course Leanan, peak oil will eventually come, that's just common sense and was not my point. Ibvestment peak oil immanent, in the next few years, that was invsetment time frame I had in mind. No, I totally disagree with that. Peak oil deniers don't believe that peak oil will be here in this century.
They believe peak oil bdo node investment not happen in their lifetime.
Even though most deniers would not deny that peak oil will eventually arrive. They believe, as Mike Lynch put it, there is no peak in sight. What you describe is the debate among peak oilers.
There are peak oil doomers, like myself, and peak oilers who believe we will actually do okay with the aid of electricity, like Alan. The latter bdo node investment be true, for older people anyway. But many "deniers" do expect peak oil within this century is bdo node investment number often bandied aboutor even think it's in the rear-view mirror.
They just don't think it will be a problem. The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones. It's pretty much mainstream, the idea that we will have to bdo node investment ancient vessel horizon fuels eventually.
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